Wavelet Analysis of the Bombay Stock Exchange Index

The fluctuations in the rate of returns of the Bombay stock exchange are analyzed through wavelet transform. The fluctuations, in various time scales, naturally separated by the wavelets, are subjected to statistical analysis. The localization and multiresolution properties of the wavelets enable one to identify collective behaviour in the stock market and the extent of their influence at various time scales. The Gaussian nature of the rate of returns at certain scales and the periodic nature of the same, at other scales, are clearly brought out by this analysis. The utility of this approach for modeling purpose is also elucidated.

     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE BLACK MARKET AND OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATES: AN EXAMINATION OF LONG-RUN DYNAMICS IN INDIA

This study is the first to use Johansen's cointegration approach for India in the analysis of the long‐term dynamics between the black and official exchange rates for the period 1953–1993. The study also estimates the long‐run elasticity of the official rate with respect to the black market rate. As monthly data over 40 years are used, and a more robust methodology is employed, the results are likely to be more reliable as compared with the earlier work on India. The results of our study suggest that while there is a long‐term relationship between the two rates, the direction of causality is from the black rate to the official exchange rate. This is plausible in the Indian context where policy has generally lagged behind events in the black market. The hypothesis of a constant black market premium is rejected, implying that there is a mismatch between the percentage change in the official exchange rate and the percentage change in the black market rate.     

Knowledge Management in Supply Chains: The Role of Explicit and Tacit Knowledge

We theorize, building on the knowledge‐based view and the theoretical distinction between explicit and tacit knowledge, that knowledge management capability across the supply chain manifests itself in explicit and tacit knowledge, which in turn effectuates supply chain performance. The model is tested with survey data from 195 small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises reporting on their primary supply chain. The results indicate that the supply chain's knowledge management capability manifests itself in both explicit and tacit knowledge, with the latter being influenced more strongly. Moreover, it was found that while both explicit and tacit knowledge influence supply chain performance, the latter exerts a significantly greater impact than the former. Exploratory post hoc analyses add robustness to these findings and investigate mechanisms inherent to the transformation of tacit into explicit knowledge. Overall, this research contributes to academic theory development in logistics and supply chain management by the dichotomization of knowledge types and the demonstration of their differential magnitude of effects, and to managerial practice by providing important guidance for logistics managers structuring their knowledge management efforts across supply chains.     

The Effect of Probability Distribution Functions of Economic Life on Retirement Alternatives

Economic analysis, supported by computer hardware and software, can easily overwhelm a decision maker with data. However, this data can be organized in a readily understandable way using well-designed graphs. Some simple guidelines suggest substantial improvements over available examples from papers and textbooks. Although these graphs and sensitivity analyses are useful in many quantitative problems, the long-range focus of engineering economy and its concomitant uncertainty dramatically increase their value.     

Accommodating spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice models: an application to modeling residential location choice behavior

This paper presents a modeling methodology capable of accounting for spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice modeling applications. Many location choice (e.g., residential location, workplace location, destination location) modeling contexts involve choice sets where alternatives are spatially correlated with one another due to unobserved factors. In the presence of such spatial correlation, traditional discrete choice modeling methods that are often based on the assumption of independence among choice alternatives are not appropriate. In this paper, a Generalized Spatially Correlated Logit (GSCL) model that allows one to represent the degree of spatial correlation as a function of a multi-dimensional vector of attributes characterizing each pair of location choice alternatives is formulated and presented. The formulation of the GSCL model allows one to accommodate alternative correlation mechanisms rather than pre-imposing restrictive correlation assumptions on the location choice alternatives. The model is applied to the analysis of residential location choice behavior using a sample of households drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) data set. Model estimation results obtained from the GSCL are compared against those obtained using the standard multinomial logit (MNL) model and the spatially correlated logit (SCL) model where only correlations across neighboring (or adjacent) alternatives are accommodated. Model findings suggest that there is significant spatial correlation across alternatives that do not share a common boundary, and that the GSCL offers the ability to more accurately capture spatial location choice behavior.     

Mexico's development strategy for the 1980s

In examining the problems and prospects of the Mexican economy in the 1980s. the main concern of this paper is whether Mexico will use its new found wealth to correct some of the major deficiences of past policies or whether the development of the energy sector will further increase the dualism between the modern and traditional sectors. This paper surveys the major problems now facing the economy (poverty and unemployment, declining agricultural production, a weak industrial base, inflation) and then discusses the framework in which Mexico proposes to deal with these problems, in particular the priority allocated to development of oil and gas. The policies are then compared briefly with the experience of Japan and Iran. The conclusion takes a critical view of current Mexican policies and suggests that a more equity-oriented and efficient growth strategy is required.     

Business Incubators in China: A Financial Services Perspective

The business incubation industry in China has been booming since the mid-1990s. However, the lack of a well-developed financial services sector has become a major bottleneck to the growth of the industry. Based on our visits to 12 Chinese business incubators around the country and interviews with their executives, we present our perspective on the state of the incubator industry in China with special emphasis on incubators' financial services for their incubatees.